Welcome to From The Upper Deck, my blog about RSL and soccer in general. I have a lot of passion for the beautiful game. I am just a fan that likes to sit in the upper deck and take it all in.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Fantasy Strategy- Double-game Weeks

By Nic Shellabarger

In the weeks before this year’s season began, the guys over at MLS.com made one bit of fantasy strategy quite clear: take advantage of the weeks when teams play twice to double your opportunities to earn points. Seems like simple multiplication, but low scores in week 7 taught me that there’s a little more to it.

Know Your Players

It’s easy to look at a player’s current total score compared to their cost and make value judgments, but unfortunately these two pieces of information may not be enough to judge a player’s quality and points potential for any given game, especially this early in the season.

Take for example Leonardo Fernandes of the Philadelphia Union. At 26 total points for only $5.4, Fernandes seems a great buy at the bigginning of week seven with the Union headed into a double-game week. Such was my thinking as I snagged him up before the set of two games. Unfortunately, the purchase didn’t pan out as I’d hoped.

While Fernandes’s point’s average looked good, I missed two key factors that might have helped me make a better purchasing decision. First, Fernandes is not consistent in his points per game. A couple of seven to eight point games increased his early average, but the majority of his games were ones and zeroes. Despite the two game advantage, a little basic math tells us that one times two isn’t very much.

The second factor I should have considered was Fernandes’s playing time in each game. A quick look at his history shows me that he has only played the full 90 minutes twice this season. This should have been a sure sign to me that he would be subbed, which he was, in a two match week. Twice as many games doesn’t mean much when a player only spends a total of 90 minutes on the pitch.

In week seven, the two-game week for the Union, Fernandes scored a total of 3 points. Not exactly a high-benefit trade for the week.

Consistent Scoring Positions

Instead of looking at solely at point totals and cost, you might be better off looking at consistent scorers in consistent scoring positions. Forwards and attacking midfielders are good investments in the long run, when the games that they contribute to scoring drives average out with the games that they don’t, but relying on them to perform in a single game might be a bit of a gamble.

Instead, look at defenders who are defending well every game. Regardless of the outcome of any given game, a good defender will accrue at least a few points. An almost guaranteed 6 points from a defender in a two game week seems a pretty solid buy. If you’re lucky, you may even get a stand-out performance such as the one from Gaddis or Okugo in week seven and double that point total.

Stick With What Works

Another option is to just forget about the double game week and stick with what’s working for you. I dropped Aurelien Collin in week seven in order to free up funds to purchase some Philadelphia Union players. Had I stuck with Collin, I would have bagged 14 points for the week (possibly even 28 if I captained him), more points than the total of all my Union players put together for week 7.

Of course, an opportunity for double points is hard to pass up, so…

Upcoming Double Game Weeks
Week 10
Houston Dynamo
Columbus Crew
Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
Week 11
Sporting KC
Philadelphia Union
Week 12
DC United
Houston Dynamo
LA Galaxy
FC Dallas
Week 13
Sporting KC
Chivas USA
Portland Timbers
Week 14
Columbus Crew
Real Salt Lake
Colorado Rapids
Chicago Fire
Week 15
Week 16
Vancouver Whitecaps
Montreal Impact

No comments:

Post a Comment