Welcome to From The Upper Deck, my blog about RSL and soccer in general. I have a lot of passion for the beautiful game. I am just a fan that likes to sit in the upper deck and take it all in.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Crunching the Numbers- KC Edition

I don't want to get into the ref controversy in this article. But if you have not read it, I would highly recommend reading this article over at RSL Soapbox about the experience of refs that work RSL matches. Great work done there by Matt.

Lets take a look at some numbers, including some really strange stats coming out of the match.

  • RSL is now scoring a goal every 57.27 minutes, which is still best in club history. The defense is now giving up a goal every 94.50 minutes, which has gone down, but it is still good for second best in club history.
  • The Robbie Findley/Joao Plata forward combination has now played 405 minutes together. This is the highest among any forward pairing on the team. During that time, the team has scored 5 goals or a goal every 81.00 minutes. 
  • RSL has given up 10 goals at home this season. They have also given up 10 goals on the road.
  • The team has not given up a goal between the 15-30th minutes. They have given up 7 goals in the final 15 minutes of matches.
  • Plata leads the team in shots (35) and shots on goal (15). Alvaro Saborio leads the team by averaging a shot every 4.12 per 90 minutes played. 
  • Over the past two seasons, Tony Beltran has missed 7 matches for RSL. In those matches, the team has one win, four losses, and two draws. In those 7 matches, the team has been given four red cards.
  • In the past six matches with post game fireworks at Rio Tinto Stadium, there have been five red cards shown.
  • Olmes Garcia has started in four matches. In those matches the team is scoring at a rate of a goal every 78.00 minutes. He has played 256 minutes as a sub. In that time the team has scored 9 goals or a goal every 28.44 minutes.
  • Lovel Palmer has played 773 minutes. In that time the team has given up 12 goals or a goal every 64.42 minutes. The team has only had five matches where they have given up more than one goal. Palmer has started all five of those matches.
There are some interesting things to take away from these stats. I was surprised to see that Plata and Findley have played the most together. I am not a big fan of the pairing in general, but against KC it worked really well. Against most teams I would still rather see a target forward to go along with the speed option. With Saborio coming back next week, my guess is that we will see less of these two going forward.

I have very mixed feelings about Plata. I love his work rate and his skill with the ball. It makes sense that he is leading the team in shots and shots on goal as he has played the most minutes out of any of the forwards. His MpTG of 56.68 is slightly below the team average so the team seems to play well while he is on the field. I just wish that he would do more with all of those shots. Only 2.86% of his shots have hit the back of the net. By comparison, 25% of Garcia's 20 shots have been goals.

Although Garcia did not score, he continues to be a spark plug off the bench for RSL. It is generally known that more goals are scored in the second half than the first so subs should have better stats than starters. Even knowing that the 28.44 scoring rate from above seems very impressive. I will be looking closer at this with an article later this week.

Finally, my stats hate Palmer. His team conceded goal rate of 64.42 is by far the worst on the team. If you look at a traditional +/- stat while he is on the field he is at a -6. That means RSL opponents have scored 6 more goals than RSL has while he has played. He is the only RSL player that has a negative +/- rating. Palmer is strange to me. While I watch him play, he looks pretty good. I don't notice him playing poorly. But the numbers just are not in his favor.


2 comments:

  1. Correlation does not imply causation. It may be interesting to look beyond the stats of palmer and look to see what other changes there are, usually he only plays when wingert or Beltran are gone, are there any other changes? Maybe there's a correlation between him and attacks (or lack of) starting from his side, maybe he's not giving options for back passes... I'm interested to find out why that stat lines up with him, because I don't see a problem directly with how he plays...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Correlation does not imply causation. It may be interesting to look beyond the stats of palmer and look to see what other changes there are, usually he only plays when wingert or Beltran are gone, are there any other changes? Maybe there's a correlation between him and attacks (or lack of) starting from his side, maybe he's not giving options for back passes... I'm interested to find out why that stat lines up with him, because I don't see a problem directly with how he plays...

    ReplyDelete