Statistically Speaking- Crossing the Ball

By Charles Barnard

Soccer is an interesting sport. Two people can watch the exact same game and see two very different things. A certain play may stick out in your mind and might affect all future thoughts about those involved. Those thoughts could be positive or they could be negative. Add in emotion and the passage of time, and something that you remember to be true and think to be true was really not the case.

Let me give an example of this. I was having a conversation about RSL's outside backs with a co-worker. I made the point that Lovel Palmer was much better at crossing the ball than Tony Beltran. My co-worker agreed with me. We both brought up the game in Vancouver last season where Palmer sent in that perfect cross into Sandoval that was headed home for a goal. Of course Palmer was better with his crosses.

This is the perfect example where one amazing play clouded my memory of all other plays that had occurred over the course of the season. This is the reason why it is important that we pay attention to statistics. Statistically, Tony Beltran had a higher percentage of completed crosses last year than Lovel Palmer.

Crossing is a stat that some people asked for last season but was one that I did not track. When I was preparing my data base for this season though I decided to include it. On Saturday, Joao Plata led the team with successful crosses at a 40% success rate. Since I had not tracked this before, I had no idea if 40% was good or not. So I decided to take the time and look back to 2013 to see how our players did with their crosses.

It took a little bit of time to pull out all the data but the results were pretty interesting. Here is everyone on RSL with 10 or more cross attempts. All of this data came out of the Opta Chalkboard on mlssoccer.com.

	Successful Cross	Unsuccessful Cross	Attempts	Completed Percentage	Min. Played	Min. per Cross attempt
Morales	54	118	172	31.40%	2282	13.27
Beltran	17	59	76	22.37%	2230	29.34
Plata	10	35	45	22.22%	1645	36.56
Garcia	5	37	42	11.90%	996	23.71
Beckerman	15	20	35	42.86%	2281	65.17
Palmer	6	28	34	17.65%	1198	35.24
Gil	5	26	31	16.13%	2061	66.48
Grabavoy	8	20	28	28.57%	2688	96
Findley	0	22	22	0.00%	1260	57.27
Wingert	3	16	19	15.79%	1742	91.68
Mansally	2	11	13	15.38%	774	59.54
Saborio	2	8	10	20.00%	1346	134.6

There are some really interesting numbers that jump out to me. I always knew that RSL attacked more down Beltran's side, but I didn't realize how much more they attacked down that side. You can see this by comparing Beltran's cross attempts to Wingert's. That is a pretty big difference.

It is interesting to see that Beckerman had the best completed percentage on the team. The more I watch him play over the years the more impressed I am with his passing ability. The stat above only proves the point even more.

I was surprised to see how many cross attempts that Garcia took when he was in matches. That is an area of his game he will need to improve upon if he continues to take crosses at such a high rate.

And finally there is Robbie Findley. Findley does a lot of things very well for RSL. Apparently crossing the ball is not one of them. I have to admit as I was compiling the data I kept hoping to find even once where he had a completed cross. Unfortunately I never found it.  

What stands out to you? Are you surprised like I was that Beltran had a higher completed percentage than Palmer? Or perhaps that Gil took more attempts (in less time played) than Grabavoy? What other nuggets of information can we learn from the numbers above?

Statistically Speaking- Javier Morales

I have said it once and I will continue to say it. I was wrong. Oh boy was I wrong.

As I talked about here one of the biggest questions last off-season facing the team was the future fate of Javier Morales. Morales was out of contract and no one knew if he would be back or not. I was of the opinion that it might not be the worst thing in the world if Morales didn't come back. Towards the end of last year I remember thinking how slow Morales was starting to look. Morales was going to be 33 at the start of this season and I felt that Father Time was starting to catch up with him.

I was not unhappy when he re-signed with the team. I really like him. But I didn't know if it was the wisest thing when I heard that his new contract was for two years and made him the club's second DP. Thankful General Manager Garth Lagerwey is a much smarter person than I am.

This season Javier Morales has proven me wrong. Not only has he turned back the hands of time but he is playing better than perhaps he ever has for RSL. I wrote earlier in the season that Morales was the team MVP on and off the field. I am going to go one step further now.  I believe that Javier Morales should get serious consideration for the MVP of the league.

Lets take a look at some stats and I will show why.

Morales has played in 24 matches starting 22 of them. He has 7 goals and 10 assists on the season. The 7 goals tie him for the most that he has ever had with RSL. The 10 assists is the second highest total for Morales in an RSL kit. Both of these are very impressive for the amount of games that Morales has played in.

His value grows as we dive deeper into his stats. Morales has played 1976 minutes on the season. During that time, RSL has scored 47 goals or a goal every 42.04 minutes. That is second best among the team and first among regular starters. RSL has a +20 goal differential while Morales is on the field. That is the highest among all RSL players. He is only one of three RSL players that have a negative COR score (the lower the better).

The best thing that Morales does is that he makes players around him better. This is best shown by looking how the team plays when Morales has not been on the field. In total, RSL has played 544 minutes without Morales. In that time the team has only scored 5 goals or a goal every 108.80 minutes. That is a 66.76 minute difference compared to when he plays! That is incredible.

Morales is incredibly important to the team, but the one person that might need Morales the most on the field is Alvaro Saborio. When Saborio has played without Morales, the team is scoring at a rate of a goal every 129.66 minutes. When the duo plays together, RSL scores every 43.25 minutes.

Here is one more thing to consider. Everyone knows that RSL is having a historic year offensively. They have already shattered many records and still have six matches to play. But when you look back to the start of the season it was a different picture. The first match that Morales started was the seventh match of the season. In those first six matches, RSL only scored 5 times. At that pace, RSL would have had by far its worst offensive year in club history. That would have been a very different picture that than the one we are experiencing today.

Will Javier Morales win the league MVP? My guess is probably not. The MVP is decided by a vote between media members, coaches, players, and fans. We know how much exposure that RSL receives so his chances might be slim. Should Morales win the MVP? I think he has made a strong case for himself. And, he has proven me wrong in the process.

Statistically Speaking- Olmes Garcia

This has been a season of surprises for RSL. In a year that many thought would be a rebuilding year, RSL has come out and shattered offensive records and sits atop the league in the race for the Supporters Shield. One of the biggest surprises on the season has been the play of Olmes Garcia.

Garcia was signed towards the end of the pre-season. Very little was known of the 20 year old striker when he was signed by the team. There were no expectations for him for this season. Many people thought he would see very little playing time or perhaps not play at all.

Garcia with a header challenge in a reserve
match earlier this season.

It wasn't until his first MLS match that people sat up and took notice. In fact, on his very first touch in MLS he put a header off the crossbar. Three weeks later Garcia scored his first MLS goal against Vancouver. On the play that scored the goal, Garcia showed his speed, ball handling ability, and a beautiful shot that got him nominated for MLS Goal of the Week.  By this point, the fan base was starting to understand the diamond in the rough that RSL had found. Garcia has quickly moved on to become a vital part of RSL and a huge fan favorite.

Garcia's stats are off the charts. I thought it would be good to really dive in to see all the things that Garcia is doing well.

Garcia has played 831 minutes so far this season. He already has an impressive 5 goals on the season which comes out that he is scoring .54 goals every 90 minutes played. That is the second best scoring rate on the team. That is a very impressive number for such a young player playing his first season in MLS.

What is more impressive is how well the team plays as a whole when he is in the game. During those 831 minutes, the team has scored 21 times, that comes out to a goal every 39.57 minutes that Garcia plays. That is the best on the team by 4 minutes per goal (Velasquez is next at 43.56). As a starter, Garcia has played 539 minutes with the team scoring 10 goals in that time period (a goal every 53.90 minutes) which is a good number for a starter. What is most impressive is seeing how well he has done coming off the bench. He has played 292 minutes as a sub. In that time, RSL has scored 11 times! That is a goal every 26.55 minutes.

Garcia is very active when he is in the match. On the season he is averaging 3.14 shots per 90 minutes that he plays. This is second highest on the team (Sabario is at 3.81). He is averaging 1.30 shots on goal per 90 minutes played which is also second highest on the team only behind Saborio's 1.45.

Garcia's assist statistics are also very impressive. With 4 assists on the year he is averaging .43 assists per 90 minutes played. That is the highest assist rate on the team! This is a huge part of Garcia's game that has flown under the radar. As he showed in the game against Columbus, the is very good at crossing the ball into dangerous spots.

Another very impressive stat that he has is his COR score. Currently Garcia has a COR score of -24.59 (the lower the number the better). Not only is Garcia one of only three players with a COR score below zero, but his score is almost 20 points below the next best player (Morales at -5.61). This shows that Garcia has great statistics all the way around.

Finally there is something that Garcia does very well that I don't have a stat for. The best way I describe it is that he forces defenders to make mistakes. I can't count how many times I have seen Garcia pressure a defender and that defender either gives up the ball or just kicks the ball out of bounds to avoid Garcia from stealing it. He has also created two penalty kicks on the season.

The exciting thing for RSL fans is that Garcia is still so young and should only continue to get better. The future is bright for Olmes Garcia.

Statistically Speaking- Robbie Findley

One of the best things about statistics is that they are emotionless. When a fan is thinking about or analyzing a player emotion gets involved. That emotion, either positive or negative, can affect the analysis that is going on. You don't have that in statistics. The numbers themselves have no emotion. The key is when you are looking at the numbers is to try and be as emotionless as possible.

There is no player on RSL that will bring up so much fan emotion and debate as Robbie Findley. It is safe to say that all RSL fans want Findley to do well. But some fans have a much more positive view of Robbie Findley than others. I have seen many debates on Twitter and various forums about Findley. He won in my poll that I conducted about who should start with Alvaro Saborio. Today I wanted to step back, take emotion out of the equation, and try and analyze Findley on a statistical level.

On the season, Findley has scored 6 goals and has 2 assists to his credit. On a whole those are pretty good numbers. The 6 goals ties him for second best in his career (he scored 12 in 2009). He is also second on the team with those 6 goals. He is scoring at a rate of a goal every 156.33 minutes which is also second best in his career. He is currently taking 2.69 shots for every 90 minutes he plays (4th on team) and is getting 1.25 shots on goal for every 90 minutes (3rd on team). He has a shots on goal percentage of 46.43% and 21.43% of his shots are hitting the back of the net (both 2nd best on the team). His COR score has dropped significantly in the past month and is now at 9.39 (the lower the score the better).

All of these numbers point to a player that is having a successful season. But not all of Findley's stats come out looking great. One of the stats that I like using the most is Minutes per Team Goal (MpTG). This shows me how well the team plays while a particular player is either on or off the field. When Findley is on the field RSL scores at a rate of a goal every 67.00 minutes. This is the worst goal scoring rate for any of the forwards on the team. When Findley is not playing, RSL is scoring at a rate of a goal every 48.59 minutes. And Findley particularly doesn't play well with Saborio. When the two play together, the team is scoring a goal every 92.25 minutes.

I thought I would take a look at how Findley does as a starter compared to how he does coming off the bench. When he is starting, the team scores at a rate of a goal every 76.27 minutes which is the worst rate among all starters. When Findley comes off the bench as a sub, the team scores every 33.00 minutes. That number sounds great, but it is also the worst rate among all forwards coming off the bench.

In the debate among fans, some people point out the fact that Findley does positive things that do not show up in the stat line; things like wearing down opposing defenses so when the fresh players come in they are able to be more effective. Findley has started 13 matches on the season. In those starts, RSL has scored 11 goals after Findley came out of the match. How many of those goals were scored due to Findley's hard work on the field? That is a good question and one that I don't have an answer to.

What is my opinion of Findley? Looking at the statistics I am torn about what to think. In my mind, this is a case where the stats don't tell the whole story. Think back to each of the goals that he as scored. Each of his six goals came from what I call a reaction play. It was a play that Findley didn't have time to think about what he was going to do, he just did it. Findley has problems when he has time to think about what he is going to do. That is when he seems loses confidence and ends up making a bad play. When he just plays and lets his athletic ability take over, he has been great.

I would love to hear what you think about Findley.

Statistically Speaking- Spotlight on Ned Grabavoy

Grabavoy - Photo by James Boz

I have a confession to make. Going into this season I was not a big Ned Grabavoy fan. Going into this last off season we all knew that changes were going to be made with the team. In talking this over with one of my friends, I was vocal to the fact that I didn't think the team should bring Grabavoy back. I am not too proud to admit that I was wrong. Grabavoy has been playing great and is having a career year for the team. I thought I would dig into his numbers to see just how good a year Grabavoy is having.

Before getting into his season's numbers, here is a little bit about Grabavoy. He was drafted 14th overall (second round) of the 2004 Superdraft by the LA Galaxy. He played two and a half seasons for LA and won the MLS Cup with the team in 2005. Halfway through the 2006 season, he was traded to the Columbus Crew where he played until 2008. In 2008 he was selected in the expansion draft by San Jose. He was put into the waiver draft and was selected by RSL prior to the 2009 season.

After missing the first two matches of the season, Grabavoy has been a mainstay in the RSL lineup. He has taken to heart the challenge that Jason Kreis issued all midfielders to score more goals. At nearly the half-way point in the season, Grabavoy is tied for third on the team with three goals. This equals the amount of regular season goals that he has scored over the previous four years of playing with RSL combined. It also ties him with his career high of goals scored in a single season.

Grabavoy has also been credited with two assists so far this season. He had three assists last season which has been his high with the team. There is a chance he will pass that.

You can really see Grabavoy's value when you take a look at team goals. While he is on the field, RSL is scoring a goal every 54.77 minutes. When he has not been on the field, RSL is scoring a goal every 117.50 minutes. Last year RSL had a better scoring rate while he was on the field (61.82) than when he was off the field (70.38) as well.

Grabavoy is also really impressive when you look at his shooting. Currently he is scoring 25% of the shots he has taken. He is the second highest on the team with this stat. This would lead me to believe that he needs to shoot more in matches. The interesting thing is that the 12 shots he has taken so far this year is the second highest shot total that he has had since he has been with RSL.

By watching Grabavoy and looking at his stats, it is obvious that he has really stepped up his game this year and has become one of the most valuable pieces in the RSL midfield.

Special thanks to RSLBoz.com for the photo. 

Statistically Speaking- Spotlight on Devon Sandoval

Sandoval - Photo by James Boz

This has been a season of surprises for RSL. There were many question marks that the team needed to answer going into the season. After RSL either traded or released four of its five forwards from the 2012 season, one of the biggest question was who the team was going to get to replace them? And would these players be able to come in and help with the attack that slumped so badly at the end of last season.

One of the answers to that question, as well as one of the biggest surprises, has been the emergence of Devon Sandoval. Not only has he played more than anyone probably expected, statistically speaking he has done it in a way that has really benefited the RSL attack. I wanted to take a closer look at Sandoval to really examine his numbers and his contribution to the team.

Lets take a look at where Sandoval came from before diving into his numbers. RSL drafted him in the second round of the MLS Superdraft. He was named 2nd team All-American out of New Mexico. In his college career he scored 28 goals and also had 17 assists. In the summer of 2012 he came and trained with RSL for a week. RSL traded two supplemental draft picks along with their second round pick to Philadelphia to move up in the draft to be able to pick Sandoval.

Going into the MLS season, I don't think anyone expected Sandoval to get much playing time in his rookie season. But so far Sandoval has started 6 matches and has played 526 total minutes. During that time the team has scored 13 goals or a goal every 40.46 minutes. This is by far the best scoring rate on the team. Here is another way to look at things: Sandoval has played in 36% of the total minutes played by the team. He has been on the field for 54% of the team goals.

These numbers show that the team scores more goals when Sandoval is in the game. But he has only contributed by scoring 1 goal in MLS matches. So why does the team play better while he is in the match? One thing has to be his work rate. He never seems to stop running and he always seems to be in a good position. Another thing is that he is a very good passer. His assist total in college shows that. His play as a target forward where he chests down the ball to oncoming teammates is outstanding. 50% of the shots he has taken has been on goal, which is the highest percentage among all attacking players on the team.

Since 526 minutes isn't a huge sample size, I decided to try to get more examples to look at. I decided to look at all competitions that RSL has played in this year. This includes all preseason, exhibition, reserve league, and Open Cup matches. When calculating all these games, Sandoval has 6 goals in 1393 minutes of play. While Sandoval has been on the field, the team has scored 29 times or a goal every 46.43 minutes. In all competitions, the team itself has scored 47 times which means that Sandoval has been on the field for 62% of all RSL goals. This is incredible when you think about all the matches that he has not played in.

When watching him play, it is clear that he has things he needs to work on. There have been a few chances now where if his finishing was better, he would have had more goals. I believe that will come with time. The important thing is that his work rate puts him in the position to score goals. And, more importantly, his play improves the play of his teammates around him leading them to score more as well.

Special thanks to RSLBoz.com for the photo.