Statting the Opposition- Seattle

By Wes Brown

Saturday’s game versus Seattle is going to rival the hype of last year’s at the same venue. Both are off to strong starts and are only separated by two points in the standings (Sounders having a game in hand). They’re also both missing key players due to World Cup duty and injuries -- Beckerman, Rimando, Saborio, and possibly Plata and Sandoval for RSL; Dempsey, Yedlin, and Traore for Seattle while also having Marshall and Neagle questionable.

Even with pseudo-B-squads, the game’s going to be entertaining, as it always is. Let’s jump into the numbers and see what RSL is up against.

Top stats

First we’ll take a look at some of the leaders in the stats that we measure -- striker duos by minutes per team goal (MpTG); center back pairings by minutes per conceded goal (MpCG); percentage of shots on goal by individual (SoG%); and where Seattle concedes and scores goals throughout a match. Some of the numbers may be surprising.

• Best strike partnerships (90+ minutes):  Dempsey/Cooper (22.50 MpTG) (8% time played); Martins/Barrett (24.75 MpTG) (3% time played); Martins/Dempsey (38.14 MpTG) (46% time played); Martins/Cooper (46.40 MpTG) (40% time played)
• Best central defensive partnerships (90+ minutes):  Marshall/Scott (180 MpCG); Traore/Marshall (64.83 MpCG); Marshall/Anibaba (20.50 MpCG)
• SoG%:  Barrett (71.43%); Neagle (64.00%); Martins (46.67%).
• Seattle concedes 28.57% of their goals (6 total) in the first 15 minutes, and 66.67% of all conceded goals (14 total) come in the first half.
• Seattle scores 32.00% of their goals in the final 15 minutes (8 total), 20.00% of all their goals (5 total) between the 60th and 75th minutes, and 64.00% of all their goals (16 total) in the second half.

Throwing some numbers out the window

Because a few key pieces are going to be missing for the Sounders (chiefly Dempsey), some of these numbers are not going to matter this weekend. Some of the analysis will have to be adjusted to focus on those players we’ll most likely see on the field. First and foremost, we should look at offense.

How often Chad Barrett’s name comes up at the top of some stat columns for Seattle is uncanny. In only 179 minutes, he’s been apart of five team goals which equates to a goal every 35.80 minutes (which is first on the team for 90+ minute players). He also has seven shots, which, despite being very low compared to his teammates, ranks second on the team for shots per 90 minutes (3.52). And that SoG% of 71.43% translates to 2.51 shots on goal per 90 minutes, first for the Sounders.

It’s been obvious watching Seattle play that the strike tandem of Dempsey and Martins is the crux of their goal-scoring. The partnership has been on the field for 14 of the Sounders’ 25 goals, and has played 534 minutes together (good for 46% of all time played). With Dempsey heading to Brazil, however, Sigi Schmid is most likely going to rely on the man he did at the start of the season:  Kenny Cooper.

Cooper’s stats are mixed. In 532 minutes, the team’s scored 11 goals while he’s on the field (or 48.36 MpTG). Conversely, there’s been 14 goals scored when Cooper’s off the field (or 45.57 MpTG). It’s largely negligible, but it’s something to think about. Where Cooper really falls flat are his passing stats. He’s currently 11th in passing accuracy amongst midfielders and strikers (69.59%), and despite registering two assists so far, his two key passes are lower than they should be for someone who’s caught up in the attack so often.

The one man not named Obafemi Martins that RSL should be worried about negating is Gonzalo Pineda. Since joining the team, the Mexican’s put up 1051 minutes, and has been on the field for all but one of Seattle’s goals. That equates to 43.79 MpTG while on the field, and 119.00 MpTG when off the field. Pineda’s passing is par for the course for the position (78.95% completed), but he has the ability to amp it up when needed to; like he did in a close match against San Jose a few weeks ago (95.12% completed). He also adds something to the position that Brad Evans struggled with:  chance creation. Pineda’s 19 key passes are first on the team, with three of them coming to fruition as assists.

Moving on, Seattle is largely bipolar with their goal-scoring/concession. With so many goals being allowed at the start of matches (even at home) the Sounders are going to need to defend well early against an RSL team that’s hot out of the gate. And, vice-versa, RSL will need to hold the fatiguing pieces together late as Seattle tries to rally for a potential comeback in the waning moments.

The center back partnership that’ll necessitate that for Seattle is in flux. With Traore definitely out and Marshall questionable with illness, that requires depth to step up. Both Scott and Anibaba have seen fairly substantial minutes thus far (272 and 301, respectively). Scott’s been the surprise of the two as the long-time Sounder has the best MpCG stat of the back line (90.67, a full 35 minutes above Seattle’s MpCG of 55.71). Anibaba, on the other hand, is noticeably worse:  43.00 MpCG when playing, and 62.07 MpCG when not playing.

A final player I’d like to look at is Dylan Remick. The youngster’s seen much more playing time than last year (504 minutes thus far), but he adds a lot to the left flank in terms of defending. With only 84.00 minutes between conceded goals, Remick is playing extremely well for being so young. He also gets forward from the left, and that’s something to worry about. With 21 open play crosses so far this season, he’s going to be servicing guys like Cooper and Barrett. Remick’s been decent with delivering successfully, too:  five crosses completed for 23.81%.

What to expect

Like against Colorado, RSL should be looking to sink their teeth in early and take advantage to Seattle’s routinely slow starts. They’ll need to find ways to neutralize Pineda’s passing and destroying abilities, and that’ll prove rather tough given how Pineda seems like excel in games with decisive midfield battles. Without Saborio and maybe even Plata, picking apart Seattle’s defense will be tricky. Sounders fans should hope Marshall is healthy enough to go, as a Scott/Anibaba partnership would most likely doom the home team. Regardless, it’s a situation where the speed of someone like Robbie Findley can work wonders against defenders who aren’t particularly quick.

On the other side of things, Borchers and Schuler (or Maund) will need to be wary of not only the size and aerial abilities of Cooper/Barrett, but the technical ability of a dribbling striker like Martins. Denying service on the flanks, winning first balls especially into the 18, and having stand-in Cole Grossman break up plays before they develop will be necessary as always.

This isn’t a Seattle side to be taken lightly, even without some of their key players. They have depth, and in some cases their depth has outperformed starters. Expect a close match, a 1-0 win for either team or another 0-0 draw for Salt Lake.

Statting the Opposition- FC Dallas

By Charles Barnard

RSL continues their season tomorrow with a match against FC Dallas. FCD is a team that started incredibly hot at the beginning of the season. But just like they did last season after a fast start, they have come back to earth and have truly been struggling over the past few weeks.

What has caused this slump? Who should RSL fans worry about going into this match? I once again jump into the numbers to try and get a better glimpse of who this FC Dallas team truly is.

• Dallas has scored 23 goals this season or a goal every 53 minutes.
• They have also given up 22 goals on the season.
• FCD has a -3 goal differential on the road.
• Dallas is scoring 40% of their goals in the first half of matches compared to 60% in the second half of matches.
• The team is giving up 36% of their goals in the first half of matches and 64% in the second half of matches.
• Dallas has yet to record a shutout this season.
• In the 649 minutes that Mauro Diaz has played FCD has scored 17 times or a goal every 38 minutes. In the time that he has not played, Dallas has only scored 5 goals or a goal every 104 minutes.
• FCD has only scored twice in the 373 minutes that Adam Moffit has played. That comes out to a goal every 186 minutes. He has a +/- of -7. 
• The team is a +7 when Je-Vaughn Watson is in the match.

It looks like one of the reasons for the teams fast start was they played 5 of their first 7 matches at home. In those first 7 matches they had a record of 5-1-1. Since that time, they have a record of 0-5-1. 

The other key thing that happened was the injury to Diaz. He was having a great start of the season when he went down with an injury. As you can see above since he has been out the FCD offense has slowed way down. Interestingly enough it was in the 8th match of the season that he got hurt and Dallas has not won since.

Not only has their offense been struggling the past six matches but their defense has been poor as well. In their first 7 matches they were giving up a goal every 70 minutes. In their last 6 matches they have been giving up a goal every 45 minutes. 

Statting the Opposition- Colorado

By Wes Brown

Before we kick off the 2014 Rocky Mountain Cup contest on Saturday, we should all take the time to look at the stats for Colorado. The numbers might be surprising.

I’ve been very low on the Rapids since it was announced that Oscar Pareja took the job in Dallas. When he took Hendry Thomas with him, I considered it another blow to the momentum Colorado gained in 2013. The indecision with off season player acquisitions put them at a severe disadvantage compared to their conference rivals, most of which made huge progress for 2014.

Despite my negative opinions of the Rapids heading into the new campaign, they currently sit in fifth place in the West (I predicted them dead last in the league), five points clear of sixth place San Jose. But there are a few stats I’ve noticed that reveal they might not be as good as their record or standing suggests.

Minutes per scored/conceded goal

The first thing that I wanted to take a look at was how often the Rapids were scoring compared to how often they were giving up goals. The Rapids have been scoring every 81.82 minutes, but they have been conceding a goal every 75.00 minutes. This differential in minutes between scored/conceded goals is important to long-term successes because, over time, it’s a good indicator of the winning tendencies of a team. Simply put, scoring more often than you concede puts more points in your coffers. We all know where the most points gets you.

(For reference sake, RSL is currently on pace for a goal every 42.86 minutes, and one conceded every 75.00).

Compounding this issue is Colorado’s uncanny number of PK’s thus far in the season. In their first three games (New York, Portland, and Kansas City), they’ve had the chance to score from the spot five times. They’ve capitalized on all of them. Removing those five PK goals, the Rapids’ have only been scoring every 150 minutes.

Say what you will about penalties, or how you factor them into matches -- the frequency of PKs for Colorado this year indicates to me that they’ve been receiving some sort of favor from the Soccer Gods, whether you recognize their existence or not. It also alerts me to the fact that Colorado hasn’t really found their groove in the attacking third just yet. This leads me to my next point.

Breadth of roster seeing playing time

Colorado currently has only five players on their full roster not having any minutes in 2014: Brenton Griffiths, Davy Armstrong, German Mera, Grant Van De Casteele, and Brian Mullan. Van De Casteele is the only of the five that’s even seen the bench. Note also that all of these players are defensive by nature, Mullan playing fullback in recent years.

All of the Rapids forwards and midfielders have seen game time, most of them substantial (Danny Mwanga is the only player with less than 100 minutes; the average minutes played is 361.8). They have no lack of options up top, even with three forwards on the field. Pablo Mastroeni has changed the forward partnerships up throughout so far, and this tells me they’re still searching for the right combo.

Of the partnerships Mastroeni has used, the three best scoring partnerships with over 100 minutes played (based on minutes per goal scored) are:  Vicente Sanchez/Deshorn Brown (60.00 minutes), Dillon Serna/Brown (62.25 minutes), and Sanchez/Serna (68.50 minutes). This seems straight forward in a 4-3-3 system, having all three players together simultaneously. But these partnerships have only accounted for, respectively, 40%, 28%, and 15% of the time on the field. Moreover, this combo has only started on one occasion -- against LA, a 1-0 win. Otherwise it’s been limited to late game substitutes or tactical adjustments -- at New York and versus San Jose. One would think with the scoring rates of this forward lineup (in one instance a full 15 minutes more frequent than the team is scoring now) that this would be the de facto combination.

This tells me two things:  1). Mastroeni is scrambling to figure out what’s working on offense; and 2) he has no clue how to trust in his guys to perform in a consistent lineup. Either way, he’s fiddling with lineups on Martin Rennie levels.

Times of goals

The Rapids have scored 91.91% of their goals in the second half (that’s only a single goal scored in the first 45). Likewise, they’ve conceded 91.67% of their goals in the second half (again, only one conceded in the first). On top of this, the final 15 minutes have seen five Colorado goals (45.45%), while they’ve given up three (25.00%). But they’ve given up the most immediately after half-time, five between minutes 46 and 60 (41.67%).

By contrast, RSL is fairly balanced across the game, both scoring and conceding. The two instances that stand out, however, is the first 15 and last 15 -- RSL have scored six goals (28.57%) before minute 16, and seven goals (33.33%) in the final quarter hour. They’ve also given up five (45.45%) in that last 15 minutes.

While Colorado might be pretty darn good at scoring at the death, RSL is better at the start and finish. This all could make for a pretty interesting scoring affair, and goals could come frequently.

What to expect

Colorado’s midfield and forward lines are going to be hodgepodge, just like they’ve been the previous 10 games. Who starts up top is a crap shoot, so the only thing to count on with their starting XI is who’s on defense. A Burch/O’Neill/Moor/Piermayr back line is most likely, and it’ll be a good matchup for RSL’s strikers.

If RSL can come out guns blazing like they did against Vancouver or Houston (and like the stats say they can do regularly), we could see a nice cushion heading into the second half. Riding that momentum could mean a couple more Salt Lake goals to begin the next 45, too. How they come out in the early stages is going to set the pace for the remainder of the match. The Rapids could pull a goal or two back late, but RSL playing at home with the stats and crowd on their side equates to (for me) another Seattle-like loss for our neighbors from the other side of the range.

Statting the Opposition- Vancouver

By Charles Barnard

This week I take another stab at looking at RSL's upcoming opponent's statistics prior to this weekend's match. Today we look at the Vancouver Whitecaps. Who should RSL be worried about heading into this match? As fans, who should we hope to see or not see in the starting lineup?

So far this season I have only seen Vancouver play probably 10 to 15 minutes. I have just not caught any of their matches yet. This is one of the reasons why I like to take a look at the stats prior to the game. It gives me a real sense of who I should be watching for from the Whitecaps. With that said, on to the stats.

• Vancouver is currently scoring a goal every 63 minutes. They are giving up a goal every 78 minutes.
• 9 of the 10 goals the Whitecaps have scored this season have come in Vancouver.
• The Whitecaps are currently scoring 80% of their goals in the second half of play and 40% of all their goals have come in the final 15 minutes of the match.
• 75% of Vancouver's conceded goals have come in the second half of matches.
• The Whitecaps best attacking duo is Kenny Miller and Kekuta Manneh. When they have played together this season Vancouver is scoring a goal every 39 minutes.
• Vancouver has scored a goal every 72 minutes that Darren Maddocks has been on the field. When he has not been on the field they are scoring a goal every 25 minutes. 
• Pedro Morales leads the team in shots (17) and shots on goal (9). He is creating a scoring chance (shot or pass leading to a shot) every 14.3 minutes.
• Manneh is creating a shot every 13.25 minutes that he has played. 
• Statistically Vancouver's best defender has been Johnny Leveron. The team has only given up 1 goal in the 135 minutes that he has been on the field. 

Vancouver has been very good defensively so far this season on the road; only giving up 2 goals in 3 road games. Rumors out of Vancouver are that defender Jay DeMerit will be out this match. It will be interesting to see if the strong defense can continue without his veteran experience.

I am curious to see who the Whitecaps will start up top. They have been using some combination of Maddocks/Manneh/Miller at forward this season. Statistically Manneh is the player that scares me the most. It will be vital for RSL to be mindful of the speed that Vancouver has up top as both Manneh and Maddocks are some of the fastest players in the league.

Coming into this match RSL has scored 7 goals in the first half. On the other hand, Vancouver has only given up 2 goals in the first half of matches. It will be interesting to see if RSL will be able to continue to score in the first half of matches. 

Statting the Opposition- Portland

By Charles Barnard

I have been tracking RSL stats since starting From the Upper Deck. This season the decision was made to try and track some other teams as well. Today marks the debut of what will hopefully be a new regular series of articles I am calling Statting the Opposition.

Today we take a look at the Timbers. Portland has had somewhat of a rough start. They are still in search of their first win on the season. This is surprising when you consider that they have played 4 of their first 6 matches at home.

Here are some of the most interesting numbers that I have noticed while looking at their data.

• The Timbers are currently scoring a goal every 67.5 minutes.
• Portland is giving up a goal every 49 minutes of play.
• Kalhif Alhassan has played 197 minutes so far this season. In that time the team has scored 7 times or a goal every 28 minutes. In the 341 minutes that he hasn't played, Portland has only scored once.
• Diego Valeri leads Portand in scoring chances (shots+passes leading to shots) with 30 or a scoring chance every 17 minutes.
• When Gaston Fernandez plays, the Timbers are scoring every 180 minutes. When he doesn't play the team scores every 30 minutes.
• Portland is only scoring a goal every 170 minutes when Jack Jewsbury plays.
• Statistically Portland's best defender is Footy Danso. When Danso plays the Timbers are only give up a goal every 65 minutes. 
• The best center back pairing so far for Portland has been Danso and Norberto Paparatto. When they play together the Timbers give up a goal every 73 minutes. The worst pairing this year has been Pa Madou Kah with Paparatto. When they play together Portland has been giving up a goal every 35 minutes.

It will be interesting to see the starting lineup for the Timbers on Saturday. Will Alhassan or Fernandez start? The numbers clearly point to the fact that Portland's offense plays better when Alhassan is on the field. He also seems to be the one that Coach Caleb Porter has been going to for the past few matches. But will that continue?

The other pressing question is which center back pairing will play between Kah/Paparatto/Danso. Each pairing has played at least 146 minutes with the pair of Paparatto/Kah playing the most together (214 minutes). The general thought around the league is that Paparatto has been struggling. It will be interesting if he will start or if RSL will face the pairing of Danso/Kah.

Here are some other interesting tidbits about the Timbers provided to me by Portland stat guy Mike Donovan (@TheMikeDonovan). Portland has been offside more than any other team in the league. Also Diego Chara is leading the league in fouls committed. Not only that, he is on pace to smash the record for most fouls committed in a single season.

I would love some feedback on this column. Are you interested in the stats of RSL's upcoming opponents? Please let me know in the comments below or tweet at me (@ccb1212).