The Plus and Minus of Things

I am a big believer that in soccer everyone on the field has some type of impact on almost every play. That is why I love looking at the MpTG stat so much. As the season goes on and there becomes a greater sample size, it shows a good representation on how well the team plays offensively while that particular player is on the field. Plus or minus (+/-) stats are another indicator of how well the team does when particular players are on the field.

At one point in the season someone asked me if I tracked +/- stats for players. At that time I did not, but I could see the value in it. I went back and calculated the stat and found some very interesting results. I have been keeping track of it ever since.

Historically +/- has been something that hockey teams have tracked. It has been only recently that it has moved to other sports like basketball. What is +/-? It is goal differential on a player level instead of a team level. You take all the goals that have been scored while a particular player is on the field and then subtract the amount of goals that have been given up while that player is on the field. Unlike MpTG the higher the number the better. I thought it would be good to take a look at the players current +/- and see what information we can learn from it.

RSL's goal differential is currently at +17 for the season. Lets first take a look at the forwards.

Player	Min	+/-
Saborio	1081	4
Findley	1070	5
Plata	1397	12
Sandoval	704	10
Garcia	831	7

So what can we tell from this? Theoretically, the more minutes a player plays, the closer his +/- will get to the team's differential for the season. I find it interesting that Sandoval has the second best +/- and has played the least amount among all the forwards. It is also interesting that Garcia who has by far the best MpTG on the team only has an average +/-. I am not sure what it means that Saborio and Findley have low +/- numbers. 

Player	Min	+/-
Gil	1625	9
Grabavoy	2220	17
Morales	1976	20
Velasquez	802	9
Stephenson	717	0
Beckerman	1831	17
Alvarez	747	4
Grossman	88	1

Above are the stats for the RSL midfielders. Morales stands out in this group with his +20. This is the highest on the team. It is interesting that Velasquez has played almost exactly half the amount of minutes that Gil has but they have the same +/-. And, what does it say that after playing over 700 minutes that Stephenson's +/- is still at 0?

Player	Min	+/-
Beltran	1879	19
Schuler	1080	0
Borchers	2070	16
Salcedo	901	14
Palmer	940	-7
Mansally	669	3
Watson-Siriboe	630	3
Maund	270	-1
McDonald	180	0

Finally here are the defender's stats. Beltran's +19 is outstanding as only he and Morales have numbers that are higher than the team differential. Salcedo really jumped out to me as well. For only playing 900 minutes his +14 is very impressive. On the flip side is Palmer. The team has really struggled defensively when he has played this year. 

What else can we figure out from these stats? I would love to hear what any one else thinks about it. 

Statistically Speaking- Javier Morales

I have said it once and I will continue to say it. I was wrong. Oh boy was I wrong.

As I talked about here one of the biggest questions last off-season facing the team was the future fate of Javier Morales. Morales was out of contract and no one knew if he would be back or not. I was of the opinion that it might not be the worst thing in the world if Morales didn't come back. Towards the end of last year I remember thinking how slow Morales was starting to look. Morales was going to be 33 at the start of this season and I felt that Father Time was starting to catch up with him.

I was not unhappy when he re-signed with the team. I really like him. But I didn't know if it was the wisest thing when I heard that his new contract was for two years and made him the club's second DP. Thankful General Manager Garth Lagerwey is a much smarter person than I am.

This season Javier Morales has proven me wrong. Not only has he turned back the hands of time but he is playing better than perhaps he ever has for RSL. I wrote earlier in the season that Morales was the team MVP on and off the field. I am going to go one step further now.  I believe that Javier Morales should get serious consideration for the MVP of the league.

Lets take a look at some stats and I will show why.

Morales has played in 24 matches starting 22 of them. He has 7 goals and 10 assists on the season. The 7 goals tie him for the most that he has ever had with RSL. The 10 assists is the second highest total for Morales in an RSL kit. Both of these are very impressive for the amount of games that Morales has played in.

His value grows as we dive deeper into his stats. Morales has played 1976 minutes on the season. During that time, RSL has scored 47 goals or a goal every 42.04 minutes. That is second best among the team and first among regular starters. RSL has a +20 goal differential while Morales is on the field. That is the highest among all RSL players. He is only one of three RSL players that have a negative COR score (the lower the better).

The best thing that Morales does is that he makes players around him better. This is best shown by looking how the team plays when Morales has not been on the field. In total, RSL has played 544 minutes without Morales. In that time the team has only scored 5 goals or a goal every 108.80 minutes. That is a 66.76 minute difference compared to when he plays! That is incredible.

Morales is incredibly important to the team, but the one person that might need Morales the most on the field is Alvaro Saborio. When Saborio has played without Morales, the team is scoring at a rate of a goal every 129.66 minutes. When the duo plays together, RSL scores every 43.25 minutes.

Here is one more thing to consider. Everyone knows that RSL is having a historic year offensively. They have already shattered many records and still have six matches to play. But when you look back to the start of the season it was a different picture. The first match that Morales started was the seventh match of the season. In those first six matches, RSL only scored 5 times. At that pace, RSL would have had by far its worst offensive year in club history. That would have been a very different picture that than the one we are experiencing today.

Will Javier Morales win the league MVP? My guess is probably not. The MVP is decided by a vote between media members, coaches, players, and fans. We know how much exposure that RSL receives so his chances might be slim. Should Morales win the MVP? I think he has made a strong case for himself. And, he has proven me wrong in the process.

Minutes per Team Goal- Review

I love stats. That should be no surprise to anyone that reads my blog on a regular basis. One of my favorite stats to analyse is Minutes per Team Goal (MpTG). This is a stat that I created on my own to get a basic understanding of how individual players are contributing to the team. I thought it would be a good time to review the numbers again for each offensive player on the team.

For those that are unfamiliar with MpTG let me explain what it is. First, I take a look at how many goals were scored by the team while a player was on the field.  Some simple math gets me a number showing how many minutes on average it takes for the team to score while the player is playing. Next I look at how many goals were scored while that player was not on the field. From that I can see how many goals per minute are scored when that player is not playing. This gives a basic look at how well the team plays with and without each player.

First lets take a look at the forwards. I have kept an update of the MpTG for the forwards on the side of my blog all season, but it is nice to take a closer look at all the numbers. As a point of reference, the team as a whole is scoring at a rate of a goal every 48.46 minutes.

Player	Min	Team Goals	MpTG	Min not played	Team Goals	MpTG	Difference
Saborio	1081	19	56.89	1439	33	43.61	-13.29
Findley	1070	19	56.32	1450	33	43.94	-12.38
Plata	1397	29	48.17	1124	23	48.87	0.7
Sandoval	704	15	46.93	1727	31	55.71	8.78
Garcia	831	21	39.57	1595	27	59.07	19.5

There are a lot of interesting things to take away from the numbers above. One thing that I find very interesting is the distribution of minutes among our forwards. It is pretty crazy that out of our five main forwards (not counting Benji Lopez) the one that has played the least still has played over 700 hundred minutes! The depth we have on the front line is incredible. It has to be a planning nightmare for opposing coaches as we have so many different combinations that we can use.

Garcia's numbers continue to blow me away every time that I look at them. Not only does he have the best MpTG among the forwards, the difference between when he plays and when he doesn't play is also the highest. 

Now lets look at the midfielders. I didn't include Cole Grossman or John Stertzer due to the limited amount of minutes they have played so far this year.

Player	Min	Team Goals	MpTG	Min not played	Team Goals	MpTG	Difference
Gil	1625	31	52.42	899	21	42.81	-9.61
Grabavoy	2220	48	46.25	300	4	75	28.75
Morales	1976	47	42.04	544	5	108.8	66.76
Velasquez	802	18	44.56	1718	34	50.53	5.97
Stephenson	717	13	55.15	1713	35	48.94	-6.21
Beckerman	1831	38	48.18	689	14	49.21	1.03
Alvarez	747	12	62.25	1742	40	45.80	-16.45

There are a lot of interesting pieces of data coming out of the numbers above. Beckerman's numbers somewhat surprised me. The difference in the offense when he plays compared to when he doesn't play is almost non-existent. I would have expected the offense to score much more when he is on the field as he seems so vital to our passing attack out of the midfield. 

If you need proof of how valuable Javier Morales is to this team all you have to do is look at the "difference" column. It takes us 66 minutes longer to score a goal when Morales is not playing. Until writing this article, this is something that I didn't realize and it is something that I want to take a closer look at. Watch for an article early next week on this subject. 

This is one of the reasons that I love stats so much. They allow you to make comparisons among the players. They also allow you to see things that you might have missed otherwise. Do they tell the whole story? No, they don't do that. But they tell a story that your eyes might have missed the first time.

RSL Family- Sebastian Velasquez

"They're fantastically together."

These were the words that Coach Jason Kreis used to describe his team in the post game press conference after last Friday's big win over the Portland Timbers. It gives us a great look at the camaraderie of the players, which is an aspect of the RSL Family that I have not touched upon in my previous blog posts. "This team is tighter than any other team I have ever been a part of, any team I have ever been a part of, playing or coaching" Kreis said.

With these words in my mind I entered the locker room after the match to talk to some of the players. It was one thing for the coach to talk about the closeness of the team, but did the players feel the same way? I was able to talk to a few of the players and will be posting their comments over the course of the next few days.

The first person I talked to was Sebastian Velasquez. I asked him about what he thought of Kreis' comments as well as the RSL Family in general.

"The good thing is that we have a very good relationship off the field. A lot of us guys will hang out in a whole group. I think that is very important. It keeps us together in the good moments and in the bad moments. Throughout the whole season you are going to have ups and downs. But it is that connection as team mates that helps us to come back up.

 That is something that is very important on this team. That is something we take pride in. We can look to our left and our right and we can say that we are brothers. We are a family. We are here to help each other up. At the end of the year we will hold the cup up. We will hold it as one. As Real Salt Lake. The motto says it all. The team is the star. There are no guys here that think they are bigger or anything. It is a very good atmosphere.

It is something that everybody that comes here will say, that we have a very family-oriented team. It goes from the coaching staff to the players. From the players to the staff that takes care of the field. From the president to the general manager and even to our fans. We have played games in the Open Cup where it was pouring down and the fans are there for us. It gives us that boost to keep going forward to fight for these different cups."

I will be the first to admit that I have no inside knowledge of what any locker rooms are like around the league. But from those that do, it really sounds like RSL has something different. There is a true friendship off the field. And I truly believe that this friendship only leads to success on the field. They are not worried about getting their own stats. They have bought in to the idea that the team is the star.

Or as Coach Kreis best described it, they're fantastically together.